With over 50 years of experience in international school education in Africa and Asia, our Senior Consultant Chuck Kite has witnessed significant developments and changes. His journey in the field began in the early 1970s when he took up a teaching position at an international school in Japan. Over the decades, he has had the privilege of working in various capacities, from teacher to administrator, and eventually as a consultant. His extensive experience has provided him with a unique perspective on the evolving landscape of international education. In this article he examines the importance of the strategic role of the School Board as the enrolment landscape continues to change.
The responsibility of setting the strategic direction of an international school lies heavily on the School Board. One of the most critical aspects of this responsibility is helping define the school's mission. The mission statement not only outlines the school's purpose but also identifies who the school serves. This clarity is essential for guiding the school's long-term planning and ensuring it remains relevant and responsive to the needs of its community. While this role is widely understood, there is a greater need for an emphasis on longer term planning.
Declining foreign students from governmental organizations and multinational corporations
Over the past 15 to 20 years, there have been significant changes in the way governments and international corporations fund their employees and their families when placing them internationally. Governments have increasingly tightened their budgets, leading to a reduction in the financial support provided for expatriate assignments. This has resulted in fewer subsidies for housing, education, and other living expenses, making it more challenging for families to relocate abroad. Multinational corporations have also reevaluated their funding strategies.
While some companies have reduced and remodeled their expatriate packages to cut costs, others have shifted their focus towards providing more comprehensive support for local hires and short-term assignments. This shift reflects a broader trend towards localization, where companies aim to hire and develop local talent rather than relying heavily on expatriates. Consequently, international schools have had to adapt to these changes by diversifying their student base and offering more flexible enrolment options to attract both expatriate and local families.
These funding changes have had a profound impact on the demographics of international schools, further emphasizing the need for boards to strategically plan and set clear missions that align with the needs of their evolving communities.
As such, although initially dominated by U.S. and European government and corporate enrolments, international schools have had to change so that they now often cater to a more local base. This change reflects the evolving demographics and the increasing number of home national parents seeking an English language-based education for their children to broaden their future opportunities.
Declining global birth rates causing reduced student numbers
To further complicate enrolment planning, the global decline in birth rates is a pressing demographic trend affecting international schools across various regions, including China, India, European countries, and South Korea.
An example of this decline is Korea which has had significant reductions in school enrolments as projections indicate that fewer than 400,000 children will enter elementary school in 2024. That historic low signals potential school closures due to insufficient student numbers.
In China, the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below replacement levels, exacerbated by decades of the one-child policy and recent economic pressures. In India too, while the TFR is declining—currently around 2.0—it remains higher than in many developed countries. However, this trend is expected to impact future enrolments as well, particularly in urban areas where education costs are rising, and families are opting for fewer children.
European countries are experiencing similar challenges; many have TFRs below 1.5, leading to concerns about aging populations and shrinking student bodies. Countries like Italy and Spain face significant school closures because of falling birth rates.
As these trends unfold across different regions, the implications for an international school’s infrastructure are profound.
Positive trends
There is however also some good news. Increased global mobility has significantly heightened the demand for international school placements, as families seek quality education amidst a backdrop of relocation for work or lifestyle. For example, the United Arab Emirates, where international schools are proliferating to meet the needs of both local and expatriate families. The UAE leads with over 428 international schools, catering to a diverse student body that increasingly includes local families seeking English-language education for better university prospects. Singapore continues to be a prime destination for individuals relocating internationally.
Focusing on Japan
Having lived and worked in Japan for many years, Chuck has adeep understanding of the cultural and educational nuances that influence international schools in the country.
In recent years, Japan has experienced a continuous decline in birth rates, with the number of children born each year decreasing for the eighth consecutive year. In 2023, only 758,631 babies were born, marking a 5.1% decline from the previous year. There was a 15% increase in the number of unused classrooms.
In public elementary, middle and high schools 8,900 facilities shut down for lack of students. While most of that was in rural areas, there have been school closures in urban settings too.
In summary, if international schools in Japan have been relying on Japanese families to maintain student enrolment, this pool of potential students is steadily decreasing.
Mitigating known risks
The Board's leadership must take proactive steps to address the strategic risks posed by changing demographics. This starts with a thorough examination of the school’s mission and strategic direction to clearly define the composition of its student body.
Undertaking risk assessments and incorporating long-term enrolment projections into strategic planning initiatives can help schools ensure their long-term viability and continue to provide quality education to their students.
Schools must set out to mitigate the risks identified and seize the opportunities presented.
In a Japanese context this has been:
Taking advantage of the steep decline in the value of the Yen to be able to offer value for money international education for students from China and other Southeast Asian countries.
Promoting international education as a quality balanced education alternative to Japanese families.
By developing innovative recruitment strategies, enhancing their web presence, investing in renovations and new facilities, and adding or expanding their boarding facilities.
In conclusion, the board's role in setting the strategic direction and mission of an international school is paramount. It must take proactive steps to mitigate the risks associated with declining student numbers. By focusing on the needs of the community and adapting to changing demographics, schools can navigate the challenges ahead and continue to thrive in an ever-evolving educational landscape.
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